Today is the day when the UK was supposed to leave the European Union. That is now not going to happen as Parliament wrestles with both the government and an array of different options.
Whatever your views on the merits of leaving or remaining, the fact that there is still no clear destination for Brexit represents a failure of the negotiations. This, in turn, has created huge uncertainty for business, costs for local authorities in preparing for no deal and intense conflict between remainers and leavers as the volume of divisive rhetoric has increased.
At times, the tactics pursued by our negotiating team have provided a classroom case-study of the ‘art of no deal’.
At the outset, allowing the talks over withdrawal and the future relationship to be separated handed Michel Barnier and his team a huge bargaining advantage. Then, announcing a set of red lines at an early point in the talks made any meaningful manoeuvring virtually impossible. At the same time, the UK’s fall-back position has neither been clear nor deliverable.
Even apprentice negotiators are trained to work out their ‘Best Alternative To A Negotiated Agreement’ or BATNA. In short, to develop a coherent strategy you need to know what the implications of a ‘no deal’ are.
The EU has never been convinced that a no-deal Brexit was a realistic or sustainable alternative for the UK, undermining the UK’s bargaining position. As Simon Coveney, the Deputy Head of the Irish Government and its Minister for Trade and Foreign Affairs said of the UK’s approach: ”It's like saying give me what I want or I'm jumping out the window.”